2027: Investors Expect Tinubu’s Re-election, Reform Continuity — Oyedele

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has said financial markets and the international investment community appear to be factoring in the possibility of President Bola Tinubu securing a second term in office and maintaining his administration’s economic reforms.

Oyedele made the remarks during a closing press briefing at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, where he spoke alongside the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso.

According to the minister, investors have shown concern about whether Nigeria would maintain its current economic policies after the 2027 general elections, particularly the removal of petrol subsidies and the unification of the foreign exchange market.

He argued that investors had not significantly factored in proposals by opposition politicians to restore fuel subsidies because, in his assessment, financial markets viewed such proposals as unlikely to be implemented.

“In all the meetings I have had, I came to a conclusion that the markets, including the domestic market, which you can read from the capital market, and the international market, have largely written off the opposition in Nigeria as being unserious. That is why they have not priced in the proposed return of subsidy,” Oyedele said.

He added that any indication that the president intended to restore fuel subsidies would likely affect market expectations and investment decisions.

“The markets and the international community have been pricing in the prospect of a second term for the President, and they expect continuity in the reforms,” he said.

Oyedele said questions about the future of the government’s economic policies had featured prominently in discussions with investors during the meetings in Thailand and on two previous visits to London.

He said investors wanted assurances that electoral considerations would not lead the administration to reverse its reforms.

According to the minister, the government remained committed to the policies, which he described as necessary for restoring macroeconomic stability and establishing the foundation for sustainable economic growth.

He said the next phase of the government’s economic programme would focus on converting improvements in stability into higher investment, lower financing costs, job creation and better economic opportunities for Nigerians.

Oyedele also highlighted what he described as gains in private investment, saying inflows had risen from approximately $300 million in 2023 to about $6 billion in 2026.

He further stated that Nigeria’s net foreign reserves had increased from around $3 billion to more than $45 billion, which he presented as evidence of an improved external position.

The minister ruled out a return to fuel subsidies and multiple exchange rates, warning that reversing the policies could undermine investor confidence, trigger capital flight and place additional pressure on the naira.

“Let me be clear: there will be no return to fuel subsidies or multiple exchange rates,” he said.

Oyedele warned that a decision to restore fuel subsidies could prompt investors to withdraw capital, putting pressure on the foreign exchange market and weakening the naira. He cited possible exchange rates of ₦3,000, ₦3,500 or ₦4,000 to the dollar as a worst-case scenario in his argument.

These figures represent the minister’s warning about a potential outcome, not an established forecast of where the exchange rate will settle.

The minister also defended the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s temporary reduction in petrol retail margins, describing it as a commercial decision rather than a subsidy funded by public money.

He explained that a company choosing to reduce its profit margin to lower retail prices should not automatically be regarded as receiving or providing a government subsidy.

Meanwhile, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said policy consistency and transparency were essential to sustaining investor confidence, attracting long-term capital and supporting economic growth.

Cardoso’s remarks underscored the importance of maintaining a predictable policy environment as Nigeria seeks to build on recent improvements in economic and foreign exchange stability.

The comments come as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, with the continuity of economic reforms likely to remain a major issue in discussions about the country’s investment outlook.